Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Uganda: Implications of complacency and early easing of lockdown

This study formulates a mathematical model that incorporates currently known COVID-19 disease characteristics and tracks various intervention measures implemented by the government of Uganda since the first reported case in March 2020. The model uniquely incorporates trace-and-isolate protocols and evaluates measures to understand levels of responsiveness and adherence to standard operating procedures, quantifying their impact on disease burden. Findings show that even with elimination of all imported cases, it would take up to nine months to rid Uganda of the disease, and optimal timing of lockdown easing requires avoiding releasing too-many-too-soon to prevent re-emergence of a second epidemic wave.